Summary of the hottest PTA spot market in a week 1

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PTA spot market one week summary (11..28)

PTA spot:

inner plate spot CCF weekly average price: 4586 yuan/ton cash ship plate oil delivery valve return pipe large oil output + replacement fixture is not only difficult to maintain the consistency of position (which often affects the test results) 152 yuan/ton

outer plate spot CCF weekly average price: 558.8 dollars/ton CIF 90 days +15.4 dollars/ton

PTA spot first rose and then stabilized this week. Over the past week, the spot transaction level of the external market has oscillated and rebounded from the US dollar at the end of last week to the US dollar/ton range in the middle of this week, with a small amount of higher reaching around us $580/ton. Although near the weekend, affected by the correction of futures and the cooling of market sentiment, the high-end US dollar/ton quotation in the early stage was gradually withdrawn, and the mainstream negotiation level gradually fell back to around us dollar/ton, the average spot price for a week as a whole was still up US $15.4 to US $558.8/ton compared with last week. The intraday spot transaction level also rebounded slightly from yuan at the end of last week to yuan/ton in the second half of the week, and the one week average spot price also rose by 152 yuan/ton compared with last week. The main reasons affecting the continued rise of spot prices in the first half of this week are:

(1). The risk of temporary break and decline of crude oil, aromatics and other products has gradually eased, especially the rebound of PX all the way this week has supported PTA. Mainly a few kinds of plastic resins

on Friday, WTI's oil price closed at $49.93/barrel in recent months, which has fallen 66% compared with the highest price of $147.27 on July 11. After a round of drastic adjustment, the crude oil futures market has returned to the starting point of the market again from the bull market peak of this round. At present, the oil price is in a very important position, which is basically the same as that of the second half of 2006, when the crude oil price was significantly adjusted to $49.9/barrel. There will be a fierce competition for long and short near the important level of $50. Judging from the situation this week, the international crude oil futures also showed a "jump up and down" performance, and the rise and fall of% at any time also surprised the market. Of course, the temporary stabilization of the oil price at the $50 level has also played a positive role in the confidence of the entire market, including the fact that many foreign PX suppliers have implemented production reduction actions, and the recent reduction of domestic PX suppliers has also significantly increased. This week, Zhenhai Petrochemical's 700000 ton unit shut down and plans to arrange maintenance in about 20 days; The 390000 ton unit of Tianjin Petrochemical is still in shutdown; The operating load of the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical is also at a low level of about 60%. For the PX market, although the current market has not yet found a clear breakthrough direction, the implementation of PX factory production reduction is generally not small, so the spot supply has been significantly biased, and the pressure loss is very tight, especially in December, the spot inquiry has been very tight. Therefore, PX spot goods have continued to rebound all the way in the past week, and the cumulative increase is also about $70/ton. Judging from the current situation, The positioning of PX settlement in December has begun to rise. According to the current situation, the probability that the contract settlement in December is lower than $600 in November is decreasing, which supports the probability of PTA plunging again to a certain extent

(2) favorable policies continued to stimulate, PTA futures continued to be strong in the first half of the week, and the small supply of PTA spot goods led to the oscillation and rise of the price level

in August, the central government carried out a series of economic research work one after another, including the introduction of a series of macroeconomic data after November, and the loosening of macro caliber for the textile industry began to appear one after another: the textile export tax rebate was adjusted three times within 100 days, the processing trade deposit was "idled", and the RMB exchange rate problem was relatively stable after August, including the recent major moves from the perspective of money and credit, This week, the central bank made another heavy attack and announced that it would cut the one-year RMB deposit and loan benchmark interest rates of financial institutions by 1.08 percentage points each, and the benchmark interest rates of deposits and loans of other maturity levels would be adjusted accordingly. At the same time, the interest rates of central bank refinancing and rediscount will be lowered. It is rare for policy actions to be adjusted frequently and vigorously. Motivated by this, the PTA futures market continued to be strong and long this week. For example, ta901 fell to a low of 4250 in the middle of this month, and then oscillated upward, reaching 4894 points on Thursday, with a maximum increase of 644 points. From the perspective of supply and demand balance, the terminal polyester sales situation once rebounded crazily in early November, and the inventory of many polyester products fell sharply or even negative inventory. After that, the polyester operation load increased moderately. At present, the domestic polyester comprehensive operation load is about%, which is equivalent to the monthly PTA demand of more than 1.3 million tons, higher than the average level of this year. In addition, PTA factories generally have a high sense of crisis in judging the market this year. Since November, the action of reducing and limiting production has continued, and the overall social inventory of PTA is very limited

of course, near the weekend, after a wave of PTA futures rose to a relatively high point, the action of long profit closing began to appear. Among them, 901 contract has reduced more than 17000 hands this week, which also reflects the main force's doubts about continuing to do more in the later period. From the current situation, the following factors may still have a negative impact on the later market. First of all, the global economic recession is still continuing, and it is uncertain when this decline will stop. There is still the possibility of further contraction in energy demand, and there is still adjustment pressure on crude oil in the medium term. Secondly, it is difficult for downstream terminal demand to turn around in the short term. The textile export situation is still grim, and it is still uncertain whether the domestic policy to stimulate domestic demand will work in the short term. In addition, near the end of the year, the pressure on enterprises to repay loans has increased, the operating rate of weaving enterprises is still declining, the number of Early Spring Festival holidays for small and medium-sized enterprises is increasing, and the demand for polyester is expected to shrink significantly compared with previous years. The support for the in-depth development of PTA market is obviously insufficient. Including PTA, the supply-demand relationship is still in dynamic balance. Hualian Sanxin EPTA plant plans to resume operation next week. The production capacity of Ningbo Taihua chemical and Yisheng (Dalian) is expected to be put into operation this year, including the current overall start-up of Korean suppliers is still high, and the selling force is very obvious affected by the sharp depreciation of the Korean won. Therefore, on the whole, it is expected that the recent market will continue to be dominated by the trend of maintaining oscillation. Even if the overall price level of the external spot market retreats to around us $per ton, it should also be able to obtain support. Of course, there are many pressures to exceed US $580 per ton in the near future, approaching the overall downturn in the domestic textile market around January, The upstream and downstream links still need to further watch the dynamic changes of various market factors in the later stage

in terms of contract goods, a mainstream domestic supplier first announced that the contract settlement price in November was 4750 yuan/ton, and then Xianglu and Yisheng successively announced that the settlement price was also at this level. Xianglu Petrochemical quoted 5000 yuan/ton in December

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