The hottest 1million tons of copper are on the way

2022-08-07
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1million tons of copper is on the road, which may not be enough.

the large copper mine under construction will produce another 1million tons of copper by 2023, but it is not enough to fully fill the expected supply and demand gap in the next few years

the downward CESCO meeting of industry analysts and senior executives was held in Santiago this week. One of the biggest events in the industry is in the optimistic spirit: a key indicator of the copper ore market - known as focusing on the most market for more than five years, and banks and securities companies such as Morgan Stanley and Macquarie Group Ltd Make metal one of their first choices

colin, executive editor of BMO capital markets commodities? "What we see is a typical resource cycle," said Colin Hamilton "No one will produce copper when it is needed, but everyone will carry out project development from 2022 to 2023 - probably after we have to take some alternative measures."

at the end of 2017, copper futures trading in New York reached the highest level in more than three years. Shortly thereafter, large copper projects that have been shelved since the economic downturn in 2016 entered the construction stage

Anglo American PLC has begun to build the quellaveco mine in Peru, which will be put into operation in 2022. Teck Resources Ltd. has announced that it will begin to expand the Quebrada Blanca mine in Chile in 2021. These two large-scale projects are in cooperation with Cobre Panama mine of first quantum metals Ltd., which has been put into operation this year

therefore, CRU group, which presided over the main meeting of CESCO that week, lowered its deficit forecast and now expects a small surplus in the market this year and next. Researchers predict that there will be a gap of 270000 tons by 2023

vanessadavidson, business director of CRU copper with higher value, said: "at the beginning of last year, it can be seen from the damaged low-carbon steel specimens that the copper price has increased, so it has been approved by many boards of directors." "Since then, we have seen lower prices, and many people have begun to shrink back."

despite growing concerns about the global economic slowdown and continued trade frictions, the deficit outlook is helping to support prices. Davidson said that it is expected that the gold price will be around us $2.86 per pound by the end of this year, close to the current US $2.93, and will remain basically unchanged in the next two years. Cru predicts that the price will reach $3.30 by 2023

copper prices fell from last year's highs, slowing the development of additional projects needed to fill the gap. Davidson said the board may need higher prices to approve more projects

Davidson said, "I think these projects will be approved at about $3.20." "When this happens, we can see a lot of people pushing the project again."

Morgan Stanley listed copper as its favorite metal in its quarterly report released at the end of last month. The company said it expected a gap of 406000 tons in the copper market this year and 187000 tons next year. The company also expects that by the end of this year or the beginning of next year, the price of sterling will rise to more than $3 per pound

in the case of a supply driven deficit, copper was strengthened this year. Glencore announced that it would reduce the production capacity of the mutanda plant in Congo by half. The roads of MMG Co., Ltd. were blocked for two months. Las bambas I have been raining in Peru and northern Chile since the beginning of the year, said Susan Bates, an analyst led by Morgan Stanley

MMG, Peruvian government representatives and community leaders signed an agreement on Saturday to lift the road blockade, but Jorge Paredes, an adviser to the protesters, told El Comercio that the route was still impassable on Monday. Suresh vadnagra, the company's executive general manager of operations, said in an e-mail statement on Sunday that the company hopes that this road will be unimpeded and that operations will return to normal in the next few days

slight supply shortage

in a report, analysts led by Tom Price said that Macquarie held a neutral to moderate bullish attitude towards the short-term outlook for copper to observe the oil level of the hydraulic control box, and expected a moderate deficit in the next two years. The bank pointed out that with the progress of Sino US trade negotiations, China's demand sentiment is recovering. The bank expects the two countries to reach a trade agreement, which will help boost copper prices in the second quarter

the trade negotiations between China and the United States and the possible impact of tensions on China's demand for rare earths may be the central topic of the Santiago meeting. According to the data of cochilco, a copper industry organization in Chile, China is the largest copper buyer to ensure the accuracy of experimental data measurement, and its consumption accounts for more than half of the estimated 23.5 million tons of copper output in 2018

bmo's Hamilton said that brokers have recently regained confidence in copper due to the drop in spot handling and refining fees (tc/rcs), while copper prices have risen so far this year

Hamilton said: "brokers including myself are generally optimistic about the near-term prospects." "In my opinion, the difference lies in China's short-term prospects."

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